The progress code and future depth prospect of China-Europe train

   It was learned from relevant media that in the autumn of 2013, the proposal of "One Belt, One Road" initiative was put forward, which pressed the acceleration button for the "steel camel team" of China-Europe trains. In the past few years, what kind of transformation has this logistics force across Asia and Europe experienced? The "China-Europe Train Development Report (2025)" released at the end of 2025 and the previously released 2021 edition report just constitute a complete observation window. More importantly, since the beginning of 2026, the sudden outbreak of war in the Middle East, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the severe impact on the global supply chain-these changes, which were not fully revealed when the 2025 report was released, are redefining the strategic role of China-Europe trains. This paper systematically compares the two reports from the perspectives of development effectiveness, construction progress, difficulties faced, countermeasures and future prospects, and jumps out of the report text to examine the opportunities and challenges of China-Europe trains under the current geopolitical changes.

First. Development Effect: Scale Leaping and Quality Reconstruction

   According to the data comparison of relevant reports, China-Europe trains have achieved a real "quantity and quality rise" in the past four years.

   Scale of operation: The report of 2021 shows that by the end of 2021, China-Europe trains had operated a total of 49,000 trains and transported 4.432 million TEUs, reaching 180 cities in 23 European countries. The 2025 report pointed out that by the end of October 2025, there were 118,600 trains, 11.7 million TEUs of goods were transported, reaching 232 cities in 26 European countries and more than 100 cities in 11 Asian countries, and the service scope basically covered the whole of Asia and Europe. The average annual operating volume has increased rapidly from 80 trains in 2013 to 19,392 trains in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 65%. In the past four years, the cumulative traffic volume has more than doubled, and the coverage has expanded from Europe to Asia and Europe. The latest data shows that by the end of 2025, the cumulative number of trains in China and Europe has exceeded 120,000.

   In terms of value growth, the 2021 report only mentioned "the value of goods transported exceeded 200 billion US dollars" in general, while the 2025 report gave accurate data: by the end of 2024, the accumulated value of goods transported reached 426.4 billion US dollars. From 2013 to 2024, the freight value of China-Europe trains increased by about 33 times, and its share in China-Europe trade increased from 0.4% to 8.5%. According to the latest statistics, as of November 2025, the accumulated value of goods has exceeded 500 billion US dollars.

   In terms of goods category, the change is more significant. The 2021 report mentioned that the categories of goods shipped to Europe have expanded to 53 categories and more than 50,000 kinds of goods, but they are still dominated by traditional categories such as IT products, clothing, shoes and hats; The 2025 report shows that high value-added goods such as auto parts, mechanical equipment, electronic appliances have become the main export commodities, accounting for more than 60% in 2024. The "new three kinds" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) have become the core supply of China-Europe trains, and accelerate the transformation of China-Europe trains from crossing hubs to high value-added industrial hubs. The category of return goods has also expanded from early wood and auto parts to mechanical and electrical products, precious metals, medical devices, food, alcohol and so on. In terms of operation quality, the 2025 report emphasizes that the comprehensive heavy container rate has been maintained at 100% in recent years, the ratio of return trip to departure trip has exceeded 85%, and the transportation price has dropped by more than 40% compared with the initial stage of operation.

   Second, construction progress: system upgrade from "point-to-point" to "networking".

   In terms of infrastructure and operational mechanism, the two reports clearly outline a construction path from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative leap".

   The construction of assembly center is the most symbolic leap. In 2021, the report proposed a demonstration project to support the construction of assembly centers in five hub cities of China-Europe trains in Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Xi 'an and Urumqi. In that year, the operation volume of the five assembly centers accounted for 56%. According to the report of 2025, China has laid out 14 central European train assembly centers in seven regions, and the traffic volume of 14 assembly centers accounted for 87% from January to October 2025, which indicates that the central European train has completely completed the transformation from "point-to-point" to "hub-to-hub". In 2026, the construction of assembly centers in various places is still accelerating. The meeting of the leading group for promoting the construction of the "Belt and Road" in Jiangsu Province emphasized the need to "accelerate the construction of the assembly center of China-Europe trains and promote the efficient connection between China-Europe trains and the golden waterways and coastal ports of the Yangtze River".

   The whole timetable is from scratch and from small to large. In 2021, the report only mentioned "the implementation of the signed Measures for the Compilation and Cooperation of the Whole Timetable of China-Europe Trains" in the development prospect, when the product was still in the pilot stage. Annex 2 of the 2025 report lists 14 full-time timetable routes in detail, and Annex 1 memorabilia clearly records that the first full-time timetable train was successfully launched in October 2022, and the "ten-day arrival" between China and Germany was realized. By the end of 2025, the number of trains opened in Europe has increased to 17, covering 9 cities in China and 6 cities in Europe, and the annual number of trains has increased to more than 1,000. Compared with ordinary trains, the whole running time is reduced by more than 30% on average, and the average value of goods per container is increased by 41%, which is generally favored by the international logistics market.

   Breakthrough progress has been made in the construction of Nantong Road. The 2021 report only briefly mentions "Kazakhstan-Caspian Ferry-Azerbaijan-Georgia and other new routes". In the 2025 report, Nantong Road was listed as one of the three major overseas channels, and it was clearly put forward that "Nantong Road trains were normalized". In July 2024, the trans-Caspian China-Europe train was normalized. In June 2025, China and five Central Asian countries signed the first multilateral intergovernmental cooperation document with the theme of international cooperation between China and Europe. In 2026, the construction of Nantong Road was further accelerated: Anhui's first "cross-sea" China-Europe train set sail, marking the official opening of the Nantong Road line of China-Europe train (Hefei); The route from Chengdu to Izmir, Turkey was opened for the first time; Wuhan has opened a new route to Baku, Azerbaijan, and it takes 18 days to arrive through "railway+sea" multimodal transport, which is more time-efficient and safer than the traditional international logistics channel. The trans-Caspian train has shortened the transportation cycle from 50 days to about 18 days, and the cost has dropped by 20%. It is rapidly upgrading from a "supplementary channel" to a "strategic lifeline".

   In terms of digital customs clearance, the 2021 report introduced the launch of the "Digital Port" system and the signing of data exchange agreements between China, Kazakhstan and China and Mongolia. The report of 2025 shows that countries along the route have established new customs clearance cooperation modes such as "Key Link", and China Customs has signed AEO mutual recognition agreements with 31 economies. In the first quarter of 2026, the "Railway Express" model was fully promoted, and the 95306 "Digital Port" system was deeply applied, and the customs clearance time at the port was shortened to less than 30 minutes. 

   Third, the dilemma: the difficulty of channel security under geopolitical turmoil.

   The most profound difference between the two reports lies in the cognition and expression of security risks. The 2021 report mentioned in mild terms that "China-Europe trains cross the Eurasian continent, passing through many countries, and the political, economic and security environment is complex"; The 2025 report directly faces the fact that "the changes in the world have accelerated in the past century, the international situation has become increasingly chaotic and turbulent, and geopolitical conflicts are prone to occur frequently", but even so, the 2025 report failed to foresee the sudden outbreak of the Middle East war in the spring of 2026 and its severe impact on the global supply chain.

   The continuous fermentation of the Ukrainian crisis has had a deep impact on the Central European trains. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine makes the main passage of China-Europe trains passing through Russia and Belarus face continuous geopolitical risks and sanctions, which leads to a decline in the traffic volume through Russia since 2023, while the traffic volume around the Caspian Sea "middle corridor" has surged year-on-year. In September 2025, Poland closed its port to Belarus due to the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise, and a large number of goods were stranded in Marasevich, and operating companies in Chengdu and other places were forced to suspend shipments, exposing the reality that the logistics channel based on complex geopolitics was "extremely fragile".

   The Red Sea shipping crisis has tested the emergency capability of China-Europe trains from another direction. After the Red Sea crisis in 2023, the shipping routes between Asia and Europe were blocked, and the traffic volume of China-Europe trains once surged by 100%. However, as the shipping conditions returned to normal in early 2025, China-Europe trains faced the new challenge of "emergency demand falling back". At the same time, more than 60% of flights need to enter the hinterland of the European Union via Poland, and the problem of excessive dependence on a single channel is fully exposed in geopolitical conflicts.

   Fourth, the new situation and strategic enlightenment under the war in the Middle East in 2026

   On the basis of comparing the contents of the two report frameworks in the previous parts, it is necessary to jump out of the report text and further examine the profound changes that have taken place since the report was released at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. At the end of February, 2026, the conflict between the United States and Iraq suddenly broke out, the Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, and the war in the Middle East has been burning for nearly two months. These "unexpected" events have brought new challenges to China-Europe trains and given them unprecedented strategic value.

   (A) Hormuz crisis: the global supply chain "stormy waves."

   The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for about 20% of the global oil and gas transportation. Since the conflict broke out at the end of February, 2026, shipping in the Strait has been almost interrupted, and international shipping giant Maersk and other companies have suspended related routes, and COSCO Shipping and other companies have been forced to adopt complicated ways such as "sea-rail combined transport" to bypass the Strait. The sharp fluctuation of energy prices quickly spread to various industries: the international crude oil price soared from 70 dollars per barrel at the end of February to 110 dollars per barrel at the beginning of April; Global urea prices have risen by 50% to 70% since the outbreak of the conflict; As an indispensable key industrial gas in chip manufacturing, the spot price of helium has risen by 40% to 50% at the highest. In addition, the transportation of fertilizer and the shortage of agricultural machinery fuel caused by the war between the United States and Iraq are bringing a "compound crisis" to global agriculture. It is expected that there will be a round of food price increase from the end of this year to next year. Analysts pointed out that this war is deeply reconstructing the world economy from four dimensions: energy pattern, supply chain system, financial order and global governance. 

   (B) China-Europe train's "breakthrough against the trend": from supplementary channel to strategic lifeline.

   Faced with the drastic fluctuation of sea lanes, China-Europe trains have quickly become a key alternative option for foreign trade enterprises. From January to February, 2026, China-Europe trains operated a total of 3,501 trains and delivered 352,000 TEUs, up by 32% and 25% respectively. In the first quarter, a total of 5,460 trains were operated, up 29% year-on-year, among which the performance of the East Passage was particularly outstanding, and the number of trains operated increased by 49% year-on-year. As of March 22nd, Zhejiang China-Europe trains have sent 322 trains, up 25.8% year-on-year, of which the increase in China-Europe direction reached 33.6%. In March, the demand for booking space increased by 40%-60% month-on-month, and the full space rate was close to 100%. A person in charge of Yiwu Freight Forwarder judged: "Even if the Strait is reopened, the oil price will not be adjusted back immediately, and it will be difficult to quickly transfer the route from the Cape of Good Hope to the Red Sea area, and the shipping cost will still be high. Therefore, for China-Europe trains, there will be a relatively large demand in the next period of time."

   (C) Nantong Road's "accelerated leap": the diversified layout is just the right time.

   The war in the Middle East has pressed the "acceleration key" for the construction of the Banlietong South Road in Central Europe. The trans-Caspian international transportation corridor bypasses the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, greatly shortening the transportation time from about 50 days to 18 days, effectively avoiding the geographical risks of traditional sea lanes. In the first quarter of 2026, the "trans-Caspian Sea" line from Zhengzhou to Baku was in normal operation, and 422 TEUs of goods had been shipped. Zhongyu Logistics Group also successfully completed the first ticket delivery service in the Caucasus, and upgraded from "station to station" to "door to door". Some scholars pointed out that under the shipping crisis in the Middle East, the "trans-Caspian era" of China-Europe trains is coming.

   (D) "new three" driven structural opportunities.

   Under the impact of the war in the Middle East, the structural opportunities of China-Europe trains are also accelerating. China enterprises have significantly accelerated the pace of building factories in Hungarian and Turkish countries, especially in the fields of new energy vehicles and batteries. China's foreign trade is shifting from "new three kinds" to robots, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs and other fields with higher technical barriers. In the first two months of 2026, the exports of 3D printers, industrial robots, integrated circuits and other products all increased by more than 50%. These high value-added and time-sensitive products are precisely the advantages of CEIBS, and the strategic value of CEIBS in rebuilding the Asia-Europe supply chain is being re-evaluated.

   (E) Need a clear understanding: scale disadvantage and cost constraints.

   While fully understanding the opportunities, we also need to stay awake. Under normal circumstances, the cost of sea waybill container is only 30% of that of China-Europe trains, and railway transportation accounts for less than 3.5% of the whole China-Europe freight market. The capacity of a large container ship is equivalent to about 120 China-Europe trains. China-Europe trains are still in the development stage, and there is still a lot of room to be tapped to shoulder the role of "stabilizer" and "supplementary channel" in the global supply chain. People in the industry generally believe that shipping and China-Europe trains are not the "substitution effect" of the trade-offs, but the "complementary relationship" of the main channel and the supplementary channel respectively.

   Five, targeted construction measures: both diversification and resilience.

   Faced with the above difficulties and new changes, the 2025 report and the latest practice since 2026 have formed a more systematic response system.

   Diversified channel layout is the primary strategy. In 2025, the report clearly put forward "accelerating the formation of multiple transport corridors", focusing on promoting the transformation of the international transport corridor across the Caspian Sea, the "cross-sea" corridor, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. In the first quarter of 2026, the traffic volume of the west, middle and east channels increased by 19%, 26% and 49% respectively.

   The innovation of transportation organization mode continued to advance. The whole timetable has 22 trains a week covering 9 domestic cities and 6 European cities. The product of railway multimodal transport bill of lading can realize single bill to the end, convenient settlement and flexible customs clearance, which provides a new choice for the combination mode of "railway train+highway connection". In April, 2026, the 10th plenary meeting of the China-Europe Train Transportation Coordination Committee emphasized the need to "work together to cope with emergencies, continuously improve transportation capacity and strengthen the construction of multiple channels".

   The construction of safety and toughness system has become an independent issue. For the first time, the 2025 report listed "enhancing the resilience of safe development" as the first development prospect. During the 2026 meeting, the China-Europe Train Transportation Coordination Committee set up a special working group on price and a special working group on safety to systematically promote the safety governance of trains in China and Europe.

   The assembly center cooperates with overseas hubs. The transportation volume of 14 domestic assembly centers accounts for 87%, and the international rail-public combined transport business covers 26 cities in five Central Asian countries, achieving an annual transportation volume of 36,000 TEUs. 95306 International Rail-Public Intermodal Bill of Lading records the information of railway and highway transportation, customs clearance, entry and exit, and realizes accurate direct access from the delivery end to the receiving end.

   VI. Future Outlook: Strategic Evolution from "Steel Camel Team" to "Digital Camel Team"

   (A) the paradigm shift of competition from "with or without" to "with or without". The 2021 report emphasizes "consolidating the foundation" and "stabilizing the situation"; The report in 2025 and the practice since then pointed out that the main roads of China-Europe trains have entered a mature development period, and the focus of market competition has been upgraded from "whether there are trains" to "the schedule is unstable and the timeliness is fast". In 2026, the government work report clearly put forward "improving the development level of China-Europe Central Asian trains", and the Ministry of Commerce put forward "promoting the development of trade channels such as China-Europe trains and new land and sea passages". In April 2026, the China-Europe High-quality Development Index was officially released, which transformed the abstract development quality into a visual quantitative index composed of four sub-indexes: quantity scale, operation quality, port smoothness and supply quality.

   (B) Rules and standards "soft connectivity" will become a key breakthrough. The 2025 report emphasizes "strengthening the convergence of rules and standards, and jointly formulating and revising international railway intermodal transport rules". In the first year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, "three-dimensional connectivity" (hard connectivity, soft connectivity, and heart connectivity) has been promoted to a new height, and the core essence is to do practical and detailed interconnection. The establishment of a special working group on safety and a special working group on price indicates that the cooperation mechanism between China and Europe is moving from extensive coordination to fine governance.

   (C) Green classes move from concept to practice. The 2025 report systematically expounds the framework of "green trains". The average carbon emissions of trains in China and Europe are only 1/15 of that of air transport and 1/7 of that of road transport, and its green comparative advantage will be further highlighted in the process of global carbon neutrality. The energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East has also made countries realize the importance of establishing a diversified energy supply system, which will accelerate the development of green energy and the transformation of electrification, and will also help China-Europe trains to continuously carry out new explorations on the road to green development. 

    (D) The "class train+"model has blossomed in an all-round way. In 2025, the report proposed to explore the formats of "train+port", "train+park", "train+cross-border e-commerce" and "train+finance" to promote the coordinated development of China-Europe trains and manufacturing, commerce, finance and information industries.

   VII. Conclusion: Forging the strategic toughness of China-Europe train in unexpected changes.

   From the lonely exploration of "Chongqing New Europe" to the "Steel Camel Team" that has broken through 120,000 columns; These four years, from the initial questioning of "is there" to the quality competition of "stability and instability", are the vivid epitome of China's participation in global governance from "freehand brushwork" to "meticulous painting".

   The sudden outbreak of war in the Middle East in 2026 reminds us that the "exceeding expectations" of geopolitics is the normal state. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has made the world see the fragility of sea lanes again, and also made the strategic value of China-Europe trains be examined again. But at the same time, we must be soberly aware that there is still a huge gap between China-Europe trains and sea transportation in terms of capacity and cost-under normal circumstances, the cost of sea waybills is only 30% of that of China-Europe trains, and railway transportation accounts for less than 3.5% of the whole China-Europe freight market. The current role of CEIBS is still an "important strategic supplement" rather than a "complete replacement".

   Facing the future, the development of China-Europe trains needs continuous efforts in three directions: first, accelerate the construction of diversified channels, take the trans-Caspian international transportation corridor as the core, and promote the formation of a "North-South-South" three-channel cooperative and multi-path backup security pattern; The second is to promote the "soft connectivity" of rules and standards, deepen the system docking with countries along the route, and improve the standardization and facilitation level of cross-border logistics; The third is to promote the digital green transformation, empower the whole process of visual management with "artificial intelligence+",and respond to the global climate governance needs with low-carbon trains.

   Under the background of today's geopolitical turmoil, China-Europe trains are carving a deep impression of refusing to "decouple and break the chain" in the hinterland of Asia and Europe with the rhythm of rails around the clock-it makes "far away" within reach, and also makes "interconnection" find a solid foothold outside the smog.